ANALYSIS: Five Factors That May Determine Outcome Of Ekiti Guber Election

The people of Ekiti state have a date with history tomorrow, June 18 as they file out to elect a new governor to pilot the affairs of the South Western state for another four years.

Current Governor, Kayode Fayemi is on the verge of completing his second term in office and will vacate the seat in October this year.

Though official figures from INEC indicates that 16 political parties will partake in the exercise, Saturdays election is expected to be a three horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Here are five factors that may determine the outcome of the election.

1. Power of Incumbency: Ekiti is an APC state and governor Fayemi will want to maintain the status quo. He will most likely use his power of Incumbency to mobilize state machinery in favour of the APC candidate in the race.

2. Ayo Fayose factor: Former governor and the leader of PDP in the state, Ayodele Fayose is not a push over. He will mobilze his support base for the PDP candidate in the race.

3. Segun Oni Factor: Segun Oni, a former governor and Governorship candidate of the SDP will play a key role in the eventual outcome of the polls. He has been projected to be a dark horse in the race. His votes and may affect the electoral fortune of PDP and the APC.

4. The candidates: Some eligible voters are projected to vote based on the quality of the candidates irrespective of party affiliations. This will most certainly swing the votes in favour of a candidate seen as most competent for the job.

5. Vote Buying: We can’t rule out the effect of voter inducement in tomorrow’s election. Due to the high rate of poverty in the land, voters are likely to trade their votes for money and other items.

Final note:

Ekiti being the fountain of knowledge must get it right this time. Eligible voters must vote for a credible candidate who has what it takes provide Democratic dividends to the people.

INEC on it’s part must ensure that the will of the people prevail through the conduct of a credible, free and fair election.

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